A novel framework for developing a machine learning-based forecasting model using multi-stage sensitivity analysis to predict the energy consumption of PCM-integrated building

Accurate machine learning (ML) predictions for the early stages of the building design are crucial to construct energy-efficient buildings utilizing limited resources. Several studies have employed ML methods for energy consumption (EC) prediction without considering the utmost crucial PCM-integrated building design parameters. In addition, reducing the dataset by considering only the most significant building design parameters before applying the ML-based method would be beneficial for reducing the computational power and memory usage of the system as well as utilizing less time in the modelling process. To this end, this research presents a novel framework to establish the most robust and reliable ML-based prediction model with less complexity, considering only the most influential PCM-integrated building design parameters. These parameters were identified for future scenarios of hot semi-arid (BSh) climate zones using multi-stage sensitivity analysis. Afterward, a reduced EC database based on the most significant building's early-design-stage parameters (EDSPs) was utilized to formulate several multi-expression programming (MEP) and support vector machines (SVM)-based forecasting models, considering the variations in their hyperparameter values. Formulated prediction models have shown less time utilization through the training and testing phases for the EC evaluations of selected PCM-integrated building compared to the physical-modelling process. Several statistical parameters were used to test and validate the performance of the formulated prediction models. The acquired model evaluation and validation results demonstrated that the MEP-based prediction model (MEP₁₅) exhibited the highest level of reliability and accuracy, showing an R² value of >95% for both the training and testing phases. The model's interpretability showed that, throughout the parametric analysis, the developed prediction model adhered to the system's physical boundary constraints. Also, the best-performing prediction model showed energy savings of up to 12% for building integrated with PCM having a melting temperature of 28 °C. Conclusively, this research demonstrated that the developed MEP-based prediction model could be employed to precisely forecast the EC for selected PCM-incorporated building in the whole BSh climate, considering important EDSPs while utilizing minimal resources.