Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

Aiymgul Kerimray, Kanat Baigarin, Rocco De Miglio, Giancarlo Tosato

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Citations (Scopus)


This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO2 from combustion by about 85 MtCO2 by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO2 not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO2 by 2030. Policy relevance: This article analyses Kazakhstan’s climate change and energy efficiency policies by making use of a modelling platform that provides a consistent framework for testing dynamic hypotheses. The effects of different P&M have been evaluated as he differences between two scenarios according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. It concludes that domestic climate mitigation objectives are synergistic with energy efficiency goals, and the set of policies adopted to achieve both objectives should be planned, implemented, and enforced jointly. It also quantifies the GHG emissions reduction if the transition to a market economy proceeds quickly and successfully (~ - 100 MtCO2e in 2030), and if a mitigation-specific policy is implemented (~ - 200 MtCO2e in 2030) compared to a baseline projection, and it highlights the need to prepare more robust and detailed energy balances and inventory of emissions in order to develop and monitor the progress of the policies

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)332-352
Number of pages21
JournalClimate Policy
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2 2016


  • bottom-up approaches
  • climate change policies
  • emission projections
  • emissions scenarios
  • energy models
  • optimal emissions path

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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