TY - CHAP
T1 - Estimating the Real Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Kazakhstan
T2 - Factors Associated with Detection of the “True Infections”
AU - Sarria-Santamera, Antonio
AU - Abdukadyrov, Nurlan
AU - Haruna, Usman Abubakar
AU - Glushkova, Natalya
AU - Semenova, Yuliya
AU - Salpynov, Zhandos
AU - Colet, Paolo
AU - Zhumambayeva, Zaule
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2024.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and various case and death numbers are being reported to track its spread. However, the number of actual cases is uncertain due to under-reporting. Using mortality data as a more reliable indicator, this study in Kazakhstan evaluated the extent of under-reporting and under-detection of COVID-19 cases from March 2020 to September 2022 using back-casting and capture-recapture methods. The results indicate that official case reporting in Kazakhstan significantly underestimates the number of infections by at least 50%. The study also suggests that improved testing capabilities may have led to a decrease in the percentage of unreported cases, however, early in the pandemic, Kazakhstan faced significant testing shortages. The study presents a mathematical model based on mortality data that highlights the severe under-reporting of COVID-19 cases in Kazakhstan and argues that understanding the true estimate of actual cases could aid in making informed decisions to end the pandemic.
AB - The COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and various case and death numbers are being reported to track its spread. However, the number of actual cases is uncertain due to under-reporting. Using mortality data as a more reliable indicator, this study in Kazakhstan evaluated the extent of under-reporting and under-detection of COVID-19 cases from March 2020 to September 2022 using back-casting and capture-recapture methods. The results indicate that official case reporting in Kazakhstan significantly underestimates the number of infections by at least 50%. The study also suggests that improved testing capabilities may have led to a decrease in the percentage of unreported cases, however, early in the pandemic, Kazakhstan faced significant testing shortages. The study presents a mathematical model based on mortality data that highlights the severe under-reporting of COVID-19 cases in Kazakhstan and argues that understanding the true estimate of actual cases could aid in making informed decisions to end the pandemic.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Estimate
KW - Kazakhstan
KW - Pandemic
KW - True infections
KW - Under-reporting
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85204417876&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85204417876&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-61939-7_21
DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-61939-7_21
M3 - Chapter
C2 - 39283438
AN - SCOPUS:85204417876
T3 - Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology
SP - 373
EP - 384
BT - Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology
PB - Springer
ER -