Estimation of operating reserve capacity in interconnected systems with variable renewable energy using probabilistic approach

The balance between supply and demand of electric power is crucial for stable operation of energy systems; therefore, having enough operating reserve capacity is important to ensure safe and cost-effective operation of the power grid. Conventional operating reserve estimation methods, based on deterministic criteria, become ineffective with increasing share of renewable power. Renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, cannot be easily integrated into existing grid systems due to unpredictable and volatile nature of their power production. To address this issue, the alternative methods that consider the uncertainties associated with renewable power generation need to be developed. In this study, a probabilistic method for estimation of operating reserve capacity in interconnected power systems considering load and renewable power forecast errors, as well as the costs associated with reserve scheduling is proposed. The proposed methodology is tested on the IEEE Two Area Reliability Test System. The main reliability indicators are compared with those, obtained by deterministic method and the probabilistic method that does not account for inter-zonal interactions. The results of proposed method show the lowest costs of operating reserves compared to other models.