TY - GEN
T1 - Geometric quantification of cost uncertainty propagation
T2 - 4th CIRP Global Web Conference, CIRPe 2015
AU - Schwabe, Oliver
AU - Shehab, Essam
AU - Erkoyuncu, John
PY - 2015/1/1
Y1 - 2015/1/1
N2 - This paper presents a novel technique for quantifying cost uncertainty propagation through the metrics of spatial geometry. Case study data was drawn from U.S. Department of Defense Selected Acquisition Report Summary Tables covering total base year cost variance of acquisition programs for between 1986 and 2013 for various whole product life cycle phases (i.e. concept, development, manufacturing, utilisation, support and retirement). The cost variances for quantity, schedule, engineering, estimating, other and support are treated as manifested uncertainty and considered as vertices of simplex geometries propagating over time thus creating an uncertainty "cloud". Length, size, volume, density, mass and symmetry are investigated for identifying, describing and predicting cloud propagation. The hypothesis is raised that the symmetry metric is suitable for determining confidence in the propagation behavior of cloud uncertainty across the whole product life cycle. Further work is suggested to develop standards for the evaluation of topological symmetries in cost estimation.
AB - This paper presents a novel technique for quantifying cost uncertainty propagation through the metrics of spatial geometry. Case study data was drawn from U.S. Department of Defense Selected Acquisition Report Summary Tables covering total base year cost variance of acquisition programs for between 1986 and 2013 for various whole product life cycle phases (i.e. concept, development, manufacturing, utilisation, support and retirement). The cost variances for quantity, schedule, engineering, estimating, other and support are treated as manifested uncertainty and considered as vertices of simplex geometries propagating over time thus creating an uncertainty "cloud". Length, size, volume, density, mass and symmetry are investigated for identifying, describing and predicting cloud propagation. The hypothesis is raised that the symmetry metric is suitable for determining confidence in the propagation behavior of cloud uncertainty across the whole product life cycle. Further work is suggested to develop standards for the evaluation of topological symmetries in cost estimation.
KW - Cloud Uncertainty
KW - Cost Variance
KW - Spatial Geometry
KW - Topological Data Analysis
KW - Uncertainty Propagation
KW - Whole Product Life Cycle
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84966681502&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84966681502&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.procir.2015.08.078
DO - 10.1016/j.procir.2015.08.078
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84966681502
T3 - Procedia CIRP
SP - 158
EP - 163
BT - CIRPe 2015 - Understanding the Life Cycle Implications of Manufacturing
A2 - Erkoyuncu, John
PB - Elsevier B.V.
Y2 - 29 September 2015 through 1 October 2015
ER -