Geometric quantification of cost uncertainty propagation: A case study

Oliver Schwabe; Essam Shehab; John Erkoyuncu

doi:10.1016/j.procir.2015.08.078

Geometric quantification of cost uncertainty propagation: A case study

Oliver Schwabe, Essam Shehab, John Erkoyuncu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper presents a novel technique for quantifying cost uncertainty propagation through the metrics of spatial geometry. Case study data was drawn from U.S. Department of Defense Selected Acquisition Report Summary Tables covering total base year cost variance of acquisition programs for between 1986 and 2013 for various whole product life cycle phases (i.e. concept, development, manufacturing, utilisation, support and retirement). The cost variances for quantity, schedule, engineering, estimating, other and support are treated as manifested uncertainty and considered as vertices of simplex geometries propagating over time thus creating an uncertainty "cloud". Length, size, volume, density, mass and symmetry are investigated for identifying, describing and predicting cloud propagation. The hypothesis is raised that the symmetry metric is suitable for determining confidence in the propagation behavior of cloud uncertainty across the whole product life cycle. Further work is suggested to develop standards for the evaluation of topological symmetries in cost estimation.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	CIRPe 2015 - Understanding the Life Cycle Implications of Manufacturing
Editors	John Erkoyuncu
Publisher	Elsevier B.V.
Pages	158-163
Number of pages	6
ISBN (Electronic)	9781510815216
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2015.08.078
Publication status	Published - Jan 1 2015
Externally published	Yes
Event	4th CIRP Global Web Conference, CIRPe 2015 - Cranefield, United Kingdom Duration: Sep 29 2015 → Oct 1 2015

Publication series

Name	Procedia CIRP
Volume	37
ISSN (Print)	2212-8271

Conference

Conference	4th CIRP Global Web Conference, CIRPe 2015
Country	United Kingdom
City	Cranefield
Period	9/29/15 → 10/1/15

Keywords

Cloud Uncertainty
Cost Variance
Spatial Geometry
Topological Data Analysis
Uncertainty Propagation
Whole Product Life Cycle

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Control and Systems Engineering
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Access to Document

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Cite this

Schwabe, O, Shehab, E & Erkoyuncu, J 2015, Geometric quantification of cost uncertainty propagation: A case study. in J Erkoyuncu (ed.), CIRPe 2015 - Understanding the Life Cycle Implications of Manufacturing. Procedia CIRP, vol. 37, Elsevier B.V., pp. 158-163, 4th CIRP Global Web Conference, CIRPe 2015, Cranefield, United Kingdom, 9/29/15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procir.2015.08.078

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author = "Oliver Schwabe and Essam Shehab and John Erkoyuncu",

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doi = "10.1016/j.procir.2015.08.078",

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AB - This paper presents a novel technique for quantifying cost uncertainty propagation through the metrics of spatial geometry. Case study data was drawn from U.S. Department of Defense Selected Acquisition Report Summary Tables covering total base year cost variance of acquisition programs for between 1986 and 2013 for various whole product life cycle phases (i.e. concept, development, manufacturing, utilisation, support and retirement). The cost variances for quantity, schedule, engineering, estimating, other and support are treated as manifested uncertainty and considered as vertices of simplex geometries propagating over time thus creating an uncertainty "cloud". Length, size, volume, density, mass and symmetry are investigated for identifying, describing and predicting cloud propagation. The hypothesis is raised that the symmetry metric is suitable for determining confidence in the propagation behavior of cloud uncertainty across the whole product life cycle. Further work is suggested to develop standards for the evaluation of topological symmetries in cost estimation.

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