Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Kanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford, Susan A McLaughlin, Edward J Boyko, Stein Emil Vollset, Amanda E Smith, Bronte E Dalton, Joe Duprey, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Hailey Hagins, Paulina A Lindstedt, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Melsew Dagne Abate, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Rami Abd-Rabu, Deldar Morad AbdulahAbu Yousuf Md Abdullah, Vida Abedi, Hassan Abidi, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Tigist Demssew Adane, Denberu Eshetie Adane, Isaac Yeboah Addo, Oyelola A Adegboye, Victor Adekanmbi, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Gina Agarwal, Zahra Babaei Aghdam, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Danish Ahmad, Rizwan Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Aqeel Ahmad, Ali Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Ayman Ahmed, Ali Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Hanadi Al Hamad, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Sharifullah Alemi, Hassam Ali, Tahereh Alinia, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sami Almustanyir, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Firehiwot Amare, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Sohrab Amiri, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Adnan Ansar, Golnoosh Ansari, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Demelash Areda, Hidayat Arifin, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Zahra Aryan, Mulu Tiruneh Asemu, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Elaheh Askari, Daniel Asmelash, Thomas Astell-Burt, Mohammad Athar, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Leticia Avila-Burgos, Ahmed Awaisu, Sina Azadnajafabad, Darshan B B, Hassan Babamohamadi, Muhammad Badar, Alaa Badawi, Ashish D Badiye, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Sulaiman Bah, Saeed Bahadory, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Hamid Reza Baradaran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Noel C Barengo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Amadou Barrow, Hamideh Bashiri, Afisu Basiru, Saurav Basu, Saurav Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Kavita Batra, Mulat Tirfie Bayih, Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Alehegn Bekele Bekele, Melaku Ashagrie Belete, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Luis Belo, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Kidanemaryam Berhe, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Sonu Bhaskar, Ajay Nagesh Bhat, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Boris Bikbov, Faiq Bilal, Bagas Suryo Bintoro, Saeid Bitaraf, Veera R Bitra, Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic, Virginia Bodolica, Archith Boloor, Michael Brauer, Javier Brazo-Sayavera, Hermann Brenner, Zahid A Butt, Daniela Calina, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Yin Cao, Chao Cao, Josip Car, Márcia Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Eeshwar K Chandrasekar, Gashaw Sisay Chanie, Jaykaran Charan, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Kirti Chauhan, Huzaifa Ahmad Cheema, Endeshaw Chekol Abebe, Simiao Chen, Nicolas Cherbuin, Fatemeh Chichagi, Saravana Babu Chidambaram, William C S Cho, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Rajiv Chowdhury, Enayet Karim Chowdhury, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Daniela Contreras, Ewerton Cousin, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Sarah Cuschieri, Bashir Dabo, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Saswati Das, Ana Maria Dascalu, Nihar Ranjan Dash, Mohsen Dashti, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Gebiso Roba Debele, Kourosh Delpasand, Fitsum Wolde Demisse, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Salil V Deo, Emina Dervišević, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Aragaw Tesfaw Desale, Anteneh Mengist Dessie, Fikreab Desta, Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan, Sourav Dey, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Nancy Diao, Daniel Diaz, Monica Dinu, Mengistie Diress, Shirin Djalalinia, Linh Phuong Doan, Deepa Dongarwar, Francisco Winter dos Santos Figueiredo, Bruce B Duncan, Siddhartha Dutta, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Hisham Atan Edinur, Michael Ekholuenetale, Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo, Islam Y Elgendy, Muhammed Elhadi, Waseem El-Huneidi, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohamed A Elmonem, Destaw Endeshaw, Hawi Leul Esayas, Habitu Birhan Eshetu, Farshid Etaee, Ibtihal Fadhil, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Ayesha Fahim, Shahab Falahi, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Hossein Farrokhpour, Farshad Farzadfar, Ali Fatehizadeh, Ghazal Fazli, Xiaoqi Feng, Tomas Y Ferede, Florian Fischer, David Flood, Ali Forouhari, Roham Foroumadi, Masoumeh Foroutan Koudehi, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Santosh Gaihre, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Yaseen Galali, Balasankar Ganesan, MA Garcia-Gordillo, Rupesh K Gautam, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Lemma Getacher, Fataneh Ghadirian, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Fariba Ghassemi, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Davide Golinelli, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Habtamu Alganeh Guadie, Shi-Yang Guan, Temesgen Worku Gudayu, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Rashid Abdi Guled, Rajeev Gupta, Kartik Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Bishal Gyawali, Rasool Haddadi, Najah R Hadi, Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Rabih Halwani, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J Hankey, Md Abdul Hannan, Shafiul Haque, Hamid Harandi, Netanja I Harlianto, S M Mahmudul Hasan, Syed Shahzad Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Soheil Hassanipour, Mohammed Bheser Hassen, Johannes Haubold, Khezar Hayat, Golnaz Heidari, Mohammad Heidari, Kamran Hessami, Yuta Hiraike, Ramesh Holla, Sahadat Hossain, Md Shakhaoat Hossain, Mohammad-Salar Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Junjie Huang, Md Nazmul Huda, Salman Hussain, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Nayu Ikeda, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rakibul M Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Ramaiah Itumalla, Masao Iwagami, Chidozie C D Iwu, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu, Assefa N Iyasu, Louis Jacob, Abdollah Jafarzadeh, Haitham Jahrami, Rajesh Jain, Chinwe Jaja, Zahra Jamalpoor, Elham Jamshidi, Balamurugan Janakiraman, Krishnamurthy Jayanna, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Ranil Jayawardena, Rime Jebai, Wonjeong Jeong, Yinzi Jin, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Abel Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Billingsley Kaambwa, Ali Kabir, Robel Hussen Kabthymer, Vidya Kadashetti, Farima Kahe, Rohollah Kalhor, Himal Kandel, Shama D Karanth, Ibraheem M Karaye, Samad Karkhah, Patrick DMC Katoto, Navjot Kaur, Sina Kazemian, Sewnet Adem Kebede, Yousef Saleh Khader, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Moien AB Khan, Maseer Khan, Ajmal Khan, Saval Khanal, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Amir M Khater, Sorour Khateri, Fatemeh khorashadizadeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Biruk Getahun Kibret, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Mika Kivimäki, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Somayeh Komaki, Farzad Kompani, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Oleksii Korzh, Karel Kostev, Nikhil Kothari, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Md Abdul Kuddus, Md Abdul Kuddus, Rakesh Kumar, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Maria Dyah Kurniasari, Ambily Kuttikkattu, Carlo La Vecchia, Tea Lallukka, Bagher Larijani, Anders O Larsson, Kamaluddin Latief, Basira Kankia Lawal, Trang Thi Bich Le, Trang Thi Bich Le, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Munjae Lee, Wei-Chen Lee, Paul H Lee, Sang-woong Lee, Seung Won Lee, Samson Mideksa Legesse, Jacopo Lenzi, Yongze Li, Ming-Chieh Li, Stephen S Lim, Lee-Ling Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Chaojie Liu, Chun-Han Lo, Graciliana Lopes, Stefan Lorkowski, Rafael Lozano, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Azzam A Maghazachi, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Razzagh Mahmoudi, Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh, Anh Tuan Mai, Azeem Majeed, Pantea Majma Sanaye, Konstantinos Christos Makris, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Borhan Mansouri, Hamid Reza Marateb, Parham Mardi, Santi Martini, Miquel Martorell, Roy Rillera Marzo, Reza Masoudi, Sahar Masoudi, Elezebeth Mathews, Andrea Maugeri, Giampiero Mazzaglia, Teferi Mekonnen, Mahboobeh Meshkat, Tomislav Mestrovic, Junmei Miao Jonasson, Tomasz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Le Huu Nhat Minh, GK Mini, J Jaime Miranda, Reza Mirfakhraie, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Awoke Misganaw, Kebede Haile Misgina, Manish Mishra, Babak Moazen, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Mohsen Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Marita Mohammadshahi, Alireza Mohseni, Hoda Mojiri-forushani, Ali H Mokdad, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Md Moniruzzaman, Ute Mons, Fateme Montazeri, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Yousef Moradi, Maryam Moradi, Mostafa Moradi Sarabi, Negar Morovatdar, Shane Douglas Morrison, Jakub Morze, Elias Mossialos, Ebrahim Mostafavi, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Francesk Mulita, Admir Mulita, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Kamarul Imran Musa, Julius C Mwita, Shankar Prasad Nagaraju, Mohsen Naghavi, Firzan Nainu, Tapas Sadasivan Nair, Hastyar Hama Rashid Najmuldeen, Vinay Nangia, Shumaila Nargus, Abdallah Y Naser, Hasan Nassereldine, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Hadush Negash, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Dang H Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Hien Quang Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Muhammad A Nizam, Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi, Mamoona Noreen, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Nkechi Martina Odogwu, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Vivek Anand Ojha, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Patrick Godwin Okwute, Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Michal Ordak, Alberto Ortiz, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Abderrahim Oulhaj, Mayowa O Owolabi, Alicia Padron-Monedero, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Raffaele Palladino, Demosthenes Panagiotakos, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Ashok Pandey, Anamika Pandey, Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal, Anca Mihaela Pantea Stoian, Shahina Pardhan, Tarang Parekh, Utsav Parekh, Maja Pasovic, Jay Patel, Jenil R Patel, Uttam Paudel, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Marcos Pereira, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Ionela-Roxana Petcu, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Vivek Podder, Maarten J Postma, Ghazaleh Pourali, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir, Ibrahim Qattea, Pourya Raee, Ibrar Rafique, Mehran Rahimi, Mahban Rahimifard, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Md Obaidur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Md Mosfequr Rahman, Mohamed Rahmani, Shayan Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Niloufar Rahnavard, Bibek Rajbhandari, Pradhum Ram, Sheena Ramazanu, Juwel Rana, Nemanja Rancic, Muhammad Modassar Ali Nawaz Ranjha, Chythra R Rao, Deepthi Rapaka, Drona Prakash Rasali, Sina Rashedi, Vahid Rashedi, Ahmed Mustafa Rashid, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Kannan RR Rengasamy, Andre M N Renzaho, Luis Felipe Reyes, Nima Rezaei, Nazila Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Hossein Rezazadeh, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Yohanes Andy Rias, Muhammad Riaz, Daniela Ribeiro, Mónica Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Leonardo Roever, Peter Rohloff, Gholamreza Roshandel, Abazar Roustazadeh, Godfrey M Rwegerera, Aly M A Saad, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Siamak Sabour, Leila Sabzmakan, Basema Saddik, Erfan Sadeghi, Umar Saeed, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Sare Safi, Sher Zaman Safi, Amene Saghazadeh, Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari, Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Harihar Sahoo, KM Saif-Ur-Rahman, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Sarvenaz Salahi, Saina Salahi, Mohamed A Saleh, Mohammad Amin Salehi, Joshua A Salomon, Juan Sanabria, Rama Krishna Sanjeev, Francesco Sanmarchi, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Made Ary Sarasmita, Saman Sargazi, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Monika Sawhney, Markus P Schlaich, Maria Inês Schmidt, Art Schuermans, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Yashendra Sethi, Allen Seylani, Maryam Shabany, Tahereh Shafaghat, Melika Shafeghat, Mahan Shafie, Nilay S Shah, Samiah Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohd Shanawaz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Sadaf Sharfaei, Bereket Beyene Shashamo, Rahman Shiri, Aminu Shittu, K M Shivakumar, Siddharudha Shivalli, Parnian Shobeiri, Fereshteh Shokri, Kerem Shuval, Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat, Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva, Colin R Simpson, Jasvinder A Singh, Paramdeep Singh, Surjit Singh, Md Shahjahan Siraj, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Abdullah Al Mamun Sohag, Hamidreza Soleimani, Solikhah Solikhah, Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar, Ranjani Somayaji, Reed J D Sorensen, Antonina V Starodubova, Sujata Sujata, Muhammad Suleman, Jing Sun, Johan Sundström, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei, Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh, Mohammad Tabish, Majid Taheri, Ensiyeh Taheri, Elahe Taki, Jacques JL Lukenze Tamuzi, Ker-Kan Tan, Nathan Y Tat, Birhan Tsegaw Taye, Worku Animaw Temesgen, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Riki Tesler, Pugazhenthan Thangaraju, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rajshree Thapa, Samar Tharwat, Nihal Thomas, Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu, Amir Tiyuri, Marcello Tonelli, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Domenico Trico, Indang Trihandini, Jaya Prasad Tripathy, Samuel Joseph Tromans, Guesh Mebrahtom Tsegay, Abdul Rohim Tualeka, Derara Girma Tufa, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Sana Ullah, Era Upadhyay, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Rohollah Valizadeh, Kim Robin van Daalen, Priya Vart, Shoban Babu Varthya, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Siavash Vaziri, Madhur verma Verma, Georgios-Ioannis Verras, Danh Cao Vo, Birhanu Wagaye, Yasir Waheed, Ziyue Wang, Yanqing Wang, Cong Wang, Fang Wang, Gizachew Tadesse Wassie, Melissa Y Wei Wei, Abrha Hailay Weldemariam, Ronny Westerman, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, YiFan Wu, Ratna DWI Wulandari, Juan Xia, Hong Xiao, Suowen Xu, Xiaoyue Xu, Dereje Y Yada, Lin Yang, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Metin Yesiltepe, Siyan Yi, Hunachew Kibret Yohannis, Naohiro Yonemoto, Yuyi You, Sojib Bin Zaman, Nelson Zamora, Iman Zare, Kourosh Zarea, Armin Zarrintan, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Naod Gebrekrstos Zeru, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Jingjing Zhou, Magdalena Zielińska, Yossef Teshome Zikarg, Sanjay Zodpey, Mohammad Zoladl, Zhiyong Zou, Alimuddin Zumla, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Dianna J Magliano, Christopher J L Murray, Simon I Hay, Theo Vos

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

153 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Summary Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Original languageEnglish
JournalThe Lancet
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2023

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this