How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs

Shyngys Karimov, Jozef Gerard L Konings

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)457-473
Number of pages17
JournalInternational Economics and Economic Policy
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2021


  • COVID-19
  • Employment dynamics
  • Machine learning
  • Start-ups

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics


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