How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs

Shyngys Karimov; Jozef Gerard L Konings

doi:10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6

How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs

Shyngys Karimov
, Jozef Gerard L Konings

Graduate School of Business

KU Leuven

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	457-473
Number of pages	17
Journal	International Economics and Economic Policy
Volume	18
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6
Publication status	Published - Jul 2021

Funding

This work has benefited from the presentations at VIVES. Financial support of the “Methusalem” grant established by the Flemish government is gratefully acknowledged. Also, we want to thank Werner Roeger and participants of the EIIW digital workshop on “How will COVID-19 affect an already fragile global economy?” for their comments and discussion.

Keywords

COVID-19
Employment dynamics
Machine learning
Start-ups

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Economics and Econometrics

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How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs 3a7c6208Final published version, 1.77 MB

Cite this

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abstract = "This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.",

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N2 - This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.

AB - This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.

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How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs

Abstract

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Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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