Language Affinity, Russian Media and Sanctions Evasion

Does language affinity with a former colonizing power make countries vulnerable to outside influence? By combining multiple survey waves, online search statistics, a survey experiment, and international trade data, we study this question for Kazakhstan. We show a shift towards pro-Russian opinions among the Russian-speaking population after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even among ethnically Kazakh citizens. We relate this shift in opinion to a substantial increase in Russian online news and social media consumption after February 2022. We demonstrate that the consumption of Russian propaganda increases the justification for circumventing sanctions against Russia. Finally, using detailed trade data, we document that re-exports of sanctioned products to Russia increased disproportionately after February 2022 from regions where the population is more exposed to Russian propaganda. Our results shed light on the mechanisms by which former colonial powers can influence beliefs and economic behavior in their former colonies in wartime.