Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation in Kazakhstan in a Post Paris Agreement Context

Under the Paris Agreement, Kazakhstan’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) target is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by between 15 and 25% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Kazakhstan’s energy system is highly carbon intensive and GHG emissions continue to steadily grow, indicating insufficient progress towards achieving the NDC emissions reductions announced under the Paris Agreement. This chapter presents modelling analysis that assesses a least-cost long term (2050) pathway towards achieving these NDC targets. An additional scenario with a ban on coal across all sectors is also considered. We utilize a TIMES-based sub-national disaggregated 16-region energy systems model for Kazakhstan. The results demonstrate how ambitious a 25% GHG emissions reduction pathway is compared with the current energy policies and mitigation actions. Such a reduction requires an almost full phase-out of coal consumption in power generation by 2050. The share of renewable energy (including hydro) could represent half of the electricity generation mix, the other half being attributed to gas-fired power plants. In other words, the overall target as set by Kazakhstan’s Strategy 2050 and Green Economy Concept to reach 50% of renewable and alternative energy sources by 2050 is very close to the least-cost 25% emissions reduction pathway. The corresponding abatement costs reach levels as high as 59 USD (constant prices of 2013) per tonne of CO2 eq. in 2030 and 281 USD per tonne of CO2 eq. in 2050. A coal ban alone is not sufficient to reduce GHGs, additional actions are needed to promote renewables.