Predictive abnormal events analysis using continuous Bayesian network

G.Z. Song, Faisal Khan, Ming Yang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The reliable prediction and diagnosis of abnormal events provide much needed guidance for risk management. The traditional Bayesian Network (traditional BN) has been used to dynamically predict and diagnose abnormal events. However, its inherent limitation caused by discrete categorization of random variables degrades the assessment reliability. This paper applied a continuous Bayesian Network (CBN) based model to reduce the above-mentioned limitation. To compute complex posterior distributions of CBN, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was used. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the application of CBN, based on which a comparative analysis of the traditional BN and CBN was presented. This work highlights that the use of CBN can overcome the drawbacks of traditional BN to make dynamic prediction and diagnosis analysis more reliable.
Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part B: Mechanical Engineering
Publication statusPublished - 2016

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Bayesian networks
Risk management
Random variables
Markov processes
Monte Carlo methods

Cite this

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title = "Predictive abnormal events analysis using continuous Bayesian network",
abstract = "The reliable prediction and diagnosis of abnormal events provide much needed guidance for risk management. The traditional Bayesian Network (traditional BN) has been used to dynamically predict and diagnose abnormal events. However, its inherent limitation caused by discrete categorization of random variables degrades the assessment reliability. This paper applied a continuous Bayesian Network (CBN) based model to reduce the above-mentioned limitation. To compute complex posterior distributions of CBN, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was used. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the application of CBN, based on which a comparative analysis of the traditional BN and CBN was presented. This work highlights that the use of CBN can overcome the drawbacks of traditional BN to make dynamic prediction and diagnosis analysis more reliable.",
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AU - Khan, Faisal

AU - Yang, Ming

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AB - The reliable prediction and diagnosis of abnormal events provide much needed guidance for risk management. The traditional Bayesian Network (traditional BN) has been used to dynamically predict and diagnose abnormal events. However, its inherent limitation caused by discrete categorization of random variables degrades the assessment reliability. This paper applied a continuous Bayesian Network (CBN) based model to reduce the above-mentioned limitation. To compute complex posterior distributions of CBN, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was used. A case study was conducted to demonstrate the application of CBN, based on which a comparative analysis of the traditional BN and CBN was presented. This work highlights that the use of CBN can overcome the drawbacks of traditional BN to make dynamic prediction and diagnosis analysis more reliable.

M3 - Article

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