### Abstract

The target of this paper is to demonstrate the benefits of using tolerance regions statistics in risk analysis. In particular, adopting the expected beta content tolerance regions as an alternative approach for choosing the optimal order of a response polynomial it is possible to improve results in reference class forecasting methodology. Reference class forecasting tries to predict the result of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. Scientists/analysts do not usually work with a best fitting polynomial according to a prediction criterion. The present paper proposes an algorithm, which selects the best response polynomial, as far as a future prediction is concerned for reference class forecasting. The computational approach adopted is discussed with the help of an example of a relevant application.

Original language | English |
---|---|

Title of host publication | Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment - ICRA5 2013 |

Editors | Alexandros Rigas, Christos P. Kitsos, Sneh Gulati, Teresa A. Oliveira |

Publisher | Springer New York |

Pages | 235-247 |

Number of pages | 13 |

ISBN (Print) | 9783319180281 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - Jan 1 2015 |

Event | 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis, ICRA5 2013 - Tomar, Portugal Duration: May 30 2013 → Jun 1 2013 |

### Publication series

Name | Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics |
---|---|

Volume | 136 |

ISSN (Print) | 2194-1009 |

ISSN (Electronic) | 2194-1017 |

### Other

Other | 5th International Conference on Risk Analysis, ICRA5 2013 |
---|---|

Country | Portugal |

City | Tomar |

Period | 5/30/13 → 6/1/13 |

### Keywords

- General linear regression
- Predictive models
- Reference class forecasting
- Risk analysis
- Tolerance regions

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Mathematics(all)

## Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Risk analysis with reference class forecasting adopting tolerance regions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

## Cite this

*Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment - ICRA5 2013*(pp. 235-247). (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics; Vol. 136). Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-18029-8_18