TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk management in carbon capture and geological storage
T2 - Insights from a structured expert elicitation
AU - Larkin, Patricia
AU - Gracie, Robert
AU - Shafiei, Ali
AU - Dusseault, Maurice
AU - Sarkarfarshi, Mirhamed
AU - Aspinall, Willy
AU - Krewski, Daniel
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are most grateful to the experts who participated in the elicitation (the order here not reflected in the anonymised range graphs): Stefan Bachu, Michael Celia, Rick Chalaturnyk, Jean-Pierre Deflandre, William Gunter, Don Lawton, Curtis Oldenburg, Lincoln Paterson, David Ryan, J. Carlos Santamarina and Ton Wildenborg. The authors also thank three anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by DK, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Chair in Risk Science at the University of Ottawa. WPA was supported in part by the UK Natural Environment Research Council CREDIBLE consortium (Grant NE/J017299/1).
Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Inderscience Publishers Ltd. This is an Open Access Article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND license. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
PY - 2019/1/1
Y1 - 2019/1/1
N2 - With a focus on risk management (RM) in injection and storage for carbon capture and geological sequestration (CCS), an expert elicitation of scientific judgements quantified collective uncertainty ranges for a number of difficult environmental and human health risk challenges. Results suggest similarities and differences in opinions, an outcome that may be reflective of both the newness and the complexity of this technology. A suitable monitoring period was estimated at about a century; however, uncertainty was three orders of magnitude, with an upper (5th percentile) value of almost 1,000 years. For selected low probability high impact georisks, only site selection and monitoring were considered 'very' effective RM options. Monitoring, well integrity studies, emergency response plan, automatic emergency shut down system and training were considered 'very' or 'extremely' effective in managing two risks more directly related to human health. Experts responded with a wide uncertainty spread for a regulated threshold of minor, major and catastrophic leakage. A companion paper discusses elicitation findings for issues related to risk assessment.
AB - With a focus on risk management (RM) in injection and storage for carbon capture and geological sequestration (CCS), an expert elicitation of scientific judgements quantified collective uncertainty ranges for a number of difficult environmental and human health risk challenges. Results suggest similarities and differences in opinions, an outcome that may be reflective of both the newness and the complexity of this technology. A suitable monitoring period was estimated at about a century; however, uncertainty was three orders of magnitude, with an upper (5th percentile) value of almost 1,000 years. For selected low probability high impact georisks, only site selection and monitoring were considered 'very' effective RM options. Monitoring, well integrity studies, emergency response plan, automatic emergency shut down system and training were considered 'very' or 'extremely' effective in managing two risks more directly related to human health. Experts responded with a wide uncertainty spread for a regulated threshold of minor, major and catastrophic leakage. A companion paper discusses elicitation findings for issues related to risk assessment.
KW - Carbon capture and storage
KW - Expert elicitation
KW - Health environment
KW - Injection
KW - Risk management
KW - Sequestration
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U2 - 10.1504/IJRAM.2019.103334
DO - 10.1504/IJRAM.2019.103334
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85074584846
SN - 1466-8297
VL - 22
SP - 404
EP - 428
JO - International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
JF - International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
IS - 3-4
ER -
