Russia in Central Asia

This chapter examines the evolution of Russia’s engagement with Central Asia and discusses the current transformations and challenges. It argues that Moscow has lacked a strategic vision for the region during most of the 30-year history of Russian-Central Asian relations and that it has instead been reactive to regional shocks and the policies of external players. Moscow’s central objective of returning to its privileged former position in the region has achieved mixed results. On the one hand, Russia remains a key partner for the majority of Central Asian states; on the other, its influence in the region is rather limited compared to the past. Moreover, Russia’s war against Ukraine, launched in 2022, has made the Central Asian states cautious about Moscow’s intentions and has pushed them to reconsider the nature of their relations with Russia, which is likely to further limit Moscow’s role in the region.