Uncertainty driven service cost estimation for decision support at the bidding stage

John Ahmet Erkoyuncu, Christopher Durugbo, Essam Shehab, Rajkumar Roy, Richard Parker, Adrian Gath, Duncan Howell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

30 Citations (Scopus)


Service cost estimation attempts to predict future costs associated to the design and delivery of services that support goods and equipment or the actions of customers. In particular, the bidding stage poses challenges due to the uncertainties that are experienced originating from lack of information and knowledge about service requirements. This research paper presents and analyses the benefits of using the Uncertainty Tool for Assessment and Simulation of Cost (U-TASC). U-TASC offers a methodology to improve service cost estimation during the bidding stage of service contracts through a systematic process to identify, evaluate and integrate uncertainty to cost. A case study is applied with three contracting scenarios within a major multinational aerospace organisation. Lessons learnt from the development and evaluation of the U-TASC methodology are used to discuss applications, generalisation potential, limitations and future research potentials.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5771-5788
Number of pages18
JournalInternational Journal of Production Research
Issue number19
Publication statusPublished - Oct 1 2013
Externally publishedYes


  • contracting for availability
  • cost estimation
  • industrial services
  • modelling
  • uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

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