TY - JOUR
T1 - Uncertainty in risk issues for carbon capture and geological storage
T2 - Findings from a structured expert elicitation
AU - Larkin, Patricia
AU - Gracie, Robert
AU - Shafiei, Ali
AU - Dusseault, Maurice
AU - Sarkarfarshi, Mirhamed
AU - Aspinall, Willy
AU - Krewski, Daniel
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors are most grateful to the experts who participated in the elicitation (the order here not reflected in the anonymised range graphs): Stefan Bachu, Michael Celia, Rick Chalaturnyk, Jean-Pierre Deflandre, William Gunter, Don Lawton, Curtis Oldenburg, Lincoln Paterson, David Ryan, J. Carlos Santamarina and Ton Wildenborg. The authors also thank three anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by DK, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Chair in Risk Science at the University of Ottawa. WPA was supported in part by the UK Natural Environment Research Council CREDIBLE consortium (Grant NE/J017299/1).
PY - 2019/1/1
Y1 - 2019/1/1
N2 - Carbon capture and geological storage (CCS) is identified within the portfolio of mitigation options for climate change. Each value chain activity of large scale integrated projects (capture, transport, injection and storage) includes uncertainties and hence potential risks with respect to both environmental and human health protection. With a focus on injection and storage, a structured elicitation of international experts provides quantified judgements and uncertainties and understanding of relative risk of CCS activities. In the 0-50 year, 51-499 year and >500 year time periods, the expert panel suggested an almost equal likelihood of storage leakage occurring, with a marked decrease from minor to major to catastrophic leakage (approximately >1 in 30; 1 in 103; 1 in 104, respectively); for the same time periods, the judgement of likelihood for major leakage that would result in measurable negative effects on human health or the environment was the same (approximately 1 in 103). Insights could stimulate further scientific deliberations about the reliable and effective deployment of this complex and interdisciplinary technological process. A companion paper discusses complementary findings for issues in CCS risk management.
AB - Carbon capture and geological storage (CCS) is identified within the portfolio of mitigation options for climate change. Each value chain activity of large scale integrated projects (capture, transport, injection and storage) includes uncertainties and hence potential risks with respect to both environmental and human health protection. With a focus on injection and storage, a structured elicitation of international experts provides quantified judgements and uncertainties and understanding of relative risk of CCS activities. In the 0-50 year, 51-499 year and >500 year time periods, the expert panel suggested an almost equal likelihood of storage leakage occurring, with a marked decrease from minor to major to catastrophic leakage (approximately >1 in 30; 1 in 103; 1 in 104, respectively); for the same time periods, the judgement of likelihood for major leakage that would result in measurable negative effects on human health or the environment was the same (approximately 1 in 103). Insights could stimulate further scientific deliberations about the reliable and effective deployment of this complex and interdisciplinary technological process. A companion paper discusses complementary findings for issues in CCS risk management.
KW - Carbon capture and storage
KW - Environmental protection
KW - Expert elicitation
KW - Geological sequestration
KW - Injection
KW - Public health
KW - Risk assessment
KW - Uncertainty
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85074569891&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85074569891&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1504/IJRAM.2019.103335
DO - 10.1504/IJRAM.2019.103335
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85074569891
VL - 22
SP - 429
EP - 463
JO - International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
JF - International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
SN - 1466-8297
IS - 3-4
ER -